A Reassessment of Argentina's GHG Proposed Target

Abstract

At the time of Argentina's greenhouse gases emissions reduction voluntary commitment, most of the articles on intensity targets had not been published. The aim of this paper is to (re)discuss briefly the proposal made by Argentina taking into account that literature. To justify the adopted target form and stringency, we compare fixed and dynamic targets in terms of the likelihood of "hot air", the relationship between allowed emissions and GDP, the link between abatement and GDP, and outcomes' dispersion. But, the assumptions implicit in the design of the target may change those properties. We show how the BAU scenario taken as reference and the level of emissions reduction affects targets' design and characteristics. Finally, considering different emissions projections, we perform a comparison between allowed emissions and projected ones during the first half commitment period (2008-2010), concluding that compliance with the commitment depends on the data source used in the calculations.

Keywords: climate change, intensity targets, uncertainty, Argentina

JEL Classification: Q28, Q54