Forecasting Investment Needs in South Africa's Electricity and Telecom Sectors

South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 74, No. 3, pp. 557-774, September 2006

18 Pages Posted: 16 Apr 2011

See all articles by Zeljko Bogetic

Zeljko Bogetic

World Bank

Johannes W. Fedderke

University of the Witwatersrand - School of Economics and Business Sciences; University of Cape Town

Date Written: September 1, 2006

Abstract

The paper uses 52-country panel-data for the period 1980-2002 to estimate demand for electricity and telecom services and, based on these estimates, project investment needs in South Africa through 2010 for two growth scenarios. Projections of average annual investment needs in electricity and telecom for the current growth scenario (3.6% per annum) are of the order of 0.2% and 0.75% of GDP, respectively. An alternative, accelerated growth scenario (6% per annum) implies an approximate doubling of investment needs in these sectors.

Keywords: Infrastructure, forecasting, South Africa, Electricity, Telecom

JEL Classification: H54, H, R, O, O57

Suggested Citation

Bogetic, Zeljko and Fedderke, Johannes, Forecasting Investment Needs in South Africa's Electricity and Telecom Sectors (September 1, 2006). South African Journal of Economics, Vol. 74, No. 3, pp. 557-774, September 2006. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1809923

Zeljko Bogetic (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Johannes Fedderke

University of the Witwatersrand - School of Economics and Business Sciences ( email )

Private Bag 3
WITS 2050
South Africa
+27 11 717-8106 (Phone)

University of Cape Town ( email )

Private Bag X3
Rondebosch, Western Cape 7701
South Africa

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