Abstract

https://ssrn.com/abstract=1810985
 
 

Citations (5)



 
 

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Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy


Robert D. Arnott


Research Affiliates, LLC

Denis B. Chaves


The Vanguard Group, Inc.

June 24, 2011

Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 68, No. 1, January/February 2012

Abstract:     
Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth and parsimonious polynomial curve across all age groups. They also performed robustness checks and produced forecasts for the coming decade, with all the necessary caveats.

Number of Pages in PDF File: 28

Keywords: demography, demographics

JEL Classification: J1, J10, J11


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Date posted: April 17, 2011 ; Last revised: December 28, 2016

Suggested Citation

Arnott, Robert D. and Chaves, Denis B., Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy (June 24, 2011). Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 68, No. 1, January/February 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1810985 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1810985

Contact Information

Robert D. Arnott (Contact Author)
Research Affiliates, LLC ( email )
620 Newport Center Dr
Ste 900
Newport Beach, CA 92660
United States
949-325-8700 (Phone)
949-325-8901 (Fax)
HOME PAGE: http://www.researchaffiliates.com/Our%20Firm/Our%20Team/Pages/Rob-Arnott.aspx
Denis Biangolino Chaves
The Vanguard Group, Inc. ( email )
100 Vanguard Blvd
Malvern, PA 19355
United States
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