Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy

28 Pages Posted: 17 Apr 2011 Last revised: 28 Dec 2016

Robert D. Arnott

Research Affiliates, LLC

Denis B. Chaves

The Vanguard Group, Inc.

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 24, 2011

Abstract

Using a large sample of countries and 60 years of data, the authors found a strong and intuitive link between demographic transitions and both GDP growth and capital market returns. Unlike previous researchers, who used ad hoc and restrictive demographic variables, the authors imposed a smooth and parsimonious polynomial curve across all age groups. They also performed robustness checks and produced forecasts for the coming decade, with all the necessary caveats.

Keywords: demography, demographics

JEL Classification: J1, J10, J11

Suggested Citation

Arnott, Robert D. and Chaves, Denis B., Demographic Changes, Financial Markets, and the Economy (June 24, 2011). Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 68, No. 1, January/February 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1810985 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1810985

Robert D. Arnott (Contact Author)

Research Affiliates, LLC ( email )

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Denis Biangolino Chaves

The Vanguard Group, Inc. ( email )

100 Vanguard Blvd
Malvern, PA 19355
United States

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