A Regime Switching Approach to Modeling Rental Prices of U.K. Real Estate Sectors
Real Estate Economics, March 2012
Posted: 19 Apr 2011
Date Written: April 18, 2011
This paper uses regime-switching models of the threshold type to analyze the adjustment process of rental prices for three U.K. commercial real estate sectors over the period 1974 to 2008. The non-linear models outperform their linear counterparts in in-sample fit. Their out-of-sample forecasting ability is better whenever the corresponding linear models contain a significant amount of neglected non-linearity. Regime switches are triggered when the growth rates of rental price exceed certain threshold levels. For the industrial and retail sectors such regime switches occur in situations of strong excess demand, for the office sector when there is strong excess supply.
Keywords: Regime switching, non-linear estimation, time-varying rental adjustment process, rental cycle, UK real estate market
JEL Classification: C22, G12, L85
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