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Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880

39 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2011  

Michael J. Artis

University of Manchester - Institute for Political & Economic Governance (IPEG)

George Chouliarakis

University of Manchester

PKG Harischandra

Central Bank of Sri Lanka

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: April 2011

Abstract

This paper studies the international business cycle behaviour across 25 advanced and emerging market economies for which 125 years of annual GDP data are available. The picture that emerges is more fragmented than the one drawn by studies that focused on a narrower set of advanced market economies. The paper offers evidence in favour of a secular increase in international business cycle synchronization within a group of European and a group of Englishspeaking economies that started during 1950-1973 and accelerated since 1973. Yet, in other regions of the world, country-specific shocks are still the dominant forces of business cycle dynamics.

Keywords: business cycles, dynamic factor models, globalization, integration

JEL Classification: C32, E32, F41, N10

Suggested Citation

Artis, Michael J. and Chouliarakis, George and Harischandra, PKG, Business Cycle Synchronization Since 1880 (April 2011). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8347. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1815842

Michael J. Artis (Contact Author)

University of Manchester - Institute for Political & Economic Governance (IPEG) ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

George Chouliarakis

University of Manchester ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom

PKG Harischandra

Central Bank of Sri Lanka ( email )

30, Janadhipathi Mw.
Colombo 01
Sri Lanka

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