Traffic Forecasts Under Uncertainty and Capacity Constraints

XREAP 2009-12

33 Pages Posted: 3 May 2011

See all articles by Anna Matas

Anna Matas

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Josep Lluís Raymond

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Adriana Karina Ruiz

Autonomous University of Barcelona

Date Written: November 1, 2009

Abstract

Traffic forecasts provide essential input for the appraisal of transport investment projects. However, according to recent empirical evidence, long-term predictions are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This paper quantifies uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the tolled motorway network in Spain. Uncertainty is quantified in the form of a confidence interval for the traffic forecast that includes both model uncertainty and input uncertainty. We apply a stochastic simulation process based on bootstrapping techniques. Furthermore, the paper proposes a new methodology to account for capacity constraints in long-term traffic forecasts. Specifically, we suggest a dynamic model in which the speed of adjustment is related to the ratio between the actual traffic flow and the maximum capacity of the motorway. This methodology is applied to a specific public policy that consists of suppressing the toll on a certain motorway section before the concession expires.

Suggested Citation

Matas, Anna and Raymond, Josep Lluís and Ruiz, Adriana Karina, Traffic Forecasts Under Uncertainty and Capacity Constraints (November 1, 2009). XREAP 2009-12. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1825062 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1825062

Anna Matas (Contact Author)

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Josep Lluís Raymond

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

Adriana Karina Ruiz

Autonomous University of Barcelona ( email )

Plaça Cívica
Cerdañola del Valles
Barcelona, Barcelona 08193
Spain

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