Good Countries or Good Projects? Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank Project Performance

36 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Cevdet Denizer

Cevdet Denizer

Center for Economics and Econometrics; World Bank

Daniel Kaufmann

Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI); The Brookings Institution

Aart Kraay

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Date Written: May 1, 2011

Abstract

The authors use data from more than 6,000 World Bank projects evaluated between 1983 and 2009 to investigate macro and micro correlates of project outcomes. They find that country-level "macro" measures of the quality of policies and institutions are very strongly correlated with project outcomes, confirming the importance of country-level performance for the effective use of aid resources. However, a striking feature of the data is that the success of individual development projects varies much more within countries than it does between countries. The authors assemble a large set of project-level "micro" correlates of project outcomes in an effort to explain some of this within-country variation. They find that measures of project size, the extent of project supervision, and evaluation lags are all significantly correlated with project outcomes, as are early-warning indicators that flag problematic projects during the implementation stage. They also find that measures of World Bank project task manager quality matter significantly for the ultimate outcome of projects. They discuss the implications of these findings for donor policies aimed at aid effectiveness.

Keywords: Housing & Human Habitats, Poverty Monitoring & Analysis, Banks & Banking Reform, Economic Theory & Research, Country Strategy & Performance

Suggested Citation

Denizer, Cevdet and Kaufmann, Daniel and Kraay, Aart, Good Countries or Good Projects? Macro and Micro Correlates of World Bank Project Performance (May 1, 2011). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5646. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1832162

Cevdet Denizer (Contact Author)

Center for Economics and Econometrics ( email )

United States
+902123596505 (Phone)
+902122872453 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.cee.boun.edu.tr

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Daniel Kaufmann

Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) ( email )

80 Broad Street
New York, NY 10004
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.resourcegovernance.org

The Brookings Institution ( email )

1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.brookings.edu/experts/kaufmannd

Aart Kraay

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-5756 (Phone)
202-522-3518 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://econ.worldbank.org/staff/akraay

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