How to Motivate People to Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is: What Makes Employees Participate in Electronic Prediction Markets?

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Forthcoming

39 Pages Posted: 10 Jul 2011

See all articles by Carolin Decker

Carolin Decker

WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management

Isabell M. Welpe

Technische Universität München (TUM) - School of Management

Bernd H. Ankenbrand

Karlshochschule International University

Date Written: 2011

Abstract

Although prediction markets are widely acknowledged to be as effective as other institutions predicting future events, little is known regarding their application in organizational settings.

For organizations, prediction markets offer a new technical possibility to make use of the beliefs, information and knowledge of their employees for organizational decisions and forecasts. Based on survey data of 147 users in German-speaking Europe, we show that expected rewards increase user satisfaction. While contribution effort and general reciprocity in isolation have no impact on satisfaction, perceived general reciprocity in conjunction with high rewards is likely to increase user satisfaction. Our findings extend our knowledge on user behavior and emphasize the importance of incentives in prediction markets.

Keywords: prediction markets, information and knowledge disclosure, knowledge application, satisfaction, forecasting technology, incentives

Suggested Citation

Decker, Carolin and Welpe, Isabell M. and Ankenbrand, Bernd H., How to Motivate People to Put Their Money Where Their Mouth Is: What Makes Employees Participate in Electronic Prediction Markets? (2011). Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1836671

Carolin Decker (Contact Author)

WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management ( email )

Burgplatz 2
Vallendar, 56179
Germany

Isabell M. Welpe

Technische Universität München (TUM) - School of Management ( email )

Leopoldstrasse 139
Munich, 80804
Germany
++49/89/289-24800 (Phone)
++49/89/289-24805 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.strategie.wi.tum.de

Bernd H. Ankenbrand

Karlshochschule International University ( email )

Karlstrasse 36-38
Karlsruhe, 76133
Germany
+497211303500 (Phone)

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