28 Pages Posted: 12 May 2011
Date Written: April 10, 2011
We derived equations for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks for Thai men and women, separately, over a specific time period using associations between risk factors and CVD events from the Framingham cohort study. The equations were recalibrated against the cumulative risks estimated for Thailand. Equations were developed separately for predicting risks of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. Recalibration of the Framingham equations reduced the CVD risks predicted for Thai men by 97% and for Thai women by 10%. The correction was largest at younger ages. In older women, recalibration increased the predicted risk. When compared with an existing equation for Thai men our recalibrated Framingham equation produced similar predictions for CVD risks over 8 years. However, the recalibrated Framingham equations are more flexible because they can be used for predicting risks over any time span and for women and men.
Keywords: Absolute Risk, Calibration, Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction, The Framingham Equations, Thailand
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Khonputsa, Panrasri and Veerman, J. L. and Bertram, Melanie and Yamwong, S. and Lim, Steven S. and Vos, Theo and Vathesatogkit, P., Recalibration of the Framingham Equations in the Thai Population (April 10, 2011). Stanford Asia Health Policy Program Working Paper No. 22. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1837702 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1837702