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Recalibration of the Framingham Equations in the Thai Population

28 Pages Posted: 12 May 2011  

Panrasri Khonputsa

Ministry of Public Health, Thailand

J. L. Veerman

University of Queensland - School of Population Health

Melanie Bertram

University of Queensland

S. Yamwong

Mahidol University

Steven S. Lim

University of Washington - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Theo Vos

University of Queensland

P. Vathesatogkit

Mahidol University

Date Written: April 10, 2011

Abstract

We derived equations for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks for Thai men and women, separately, over a specific time period using associations between risk factors and CVD events from the Framingham cohort study. The equations were recalibrated against the cumulative risks estimated for Thailand. Equations were developed separately for predicting risks of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke. Recalibration of the Framingham equations reduced the CVD risks predicted for Thai men by 97% and for Thai women by 10%. The correction was largest at younger ages. In older women, recalibration increased the predicted risk. When compared with an existing equation for Thai men our recalibrated Framingham equation produced similar predictions for CVD risks over 8 years. However, the recalibrated Framingham equations are more flexible because they can be used for predicting risks over any time span and for women and men.

Keywords: Absolute Risk, Calibration, Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction, The Framingham Equations, Thailand

Suggested Citation

Khonputsa, Panrasri and Veerman, J. L. and Bertram, Melanie and Yamwong, S. and Lim, Steven S. and Vos, Theo and Vathesatogkit, P., Recalibration of the Framingham Equations in the Thai Population (April 10, 2011). Stanford Asia Health Policy Program Working Paper No. 22. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1837702 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1837702

Panrasri Khonputsa (Contact Author)

Ministry of Public Health, Thailand ( email )

Building 1, 1st Floor, Office of the Permanent Sec
Tiwanon Road, Muang District
Nonthaburi, Nonthaburi 11000
Thailand

J. L. Veerman

University of Queensland - School of Population Health ( email )

Level 2, Public Health Building
Herston Road
Brisbane, QLD 4006
Australia

Melanie Bertram

University of Queensland ( email )

St Lucia
Brisbane, Queensland 4072
Australia

S. Yamwong

Mahidol University ( email )

69 Vipawadee Rangsit Road
Phayatai, Bangkok, Nakhonpathom 10400
Thailand

Steven S. Lim

University of Washington - The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ( email )

Seattle, WA
United States

Theo Vos

University of Queensland ( email )

St Lucia
Brisbane, Queensland 4072
Australia

P. Vathesatogkit

Mahidol University ( email )

69 Vipawadee Rangsit Road
Phayatai, Bangkok, Nakhonpathom 10400
Thailand

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