Economic Growth and Political Survival

ANU Working Paper No. 2011/06

87 Pages Posted: 26 May 2011

See all articles by Paul J. Burke

Paul J. Burke

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy

Date Written: May 1, 2011

Abstract

Using data for 160 countries for the period 1963-2001, this paper examines the short-run relationship between economic growth and changes in national leaders. To address the potential endogeneity of economic growth, I use exogenous variation in commodity export prices, export partner incomes, precipitation, and temperature to instrument for a country’s rate of economic growth. The results indicate that more rapid economic growth increases the short-run likelihood that national leaders will retain their positions. The findings are similar for both democracies and autocracies and indicate that faster economic growth reduces the likelihoods of both regular leader exits and irregular leader exits such as coups. The results also suggest that stronger economic growth reduces the likelihood that national leaders employ oppressive tactics against opponents.

Keywords: economic growth, politics, political survival, political change, leader turnover

JEL Classification: D72, O40, P16

Suggested Citation

Burke, Paul J., Economic Growth and Political Survival (May 1, 2011). ANU Working Paper No. 2011/06, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1845464 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1845464

Paul J. Burke (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - Crawford School of Public Policy ( email )

7 Liversidge Street
Lennox Crossing
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory ACT 0200
Australia

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
124
Abstract Views
1,125
Rank
409,537
PlumX Metrics