The Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya

Abstract

Climatic variability exerts tremendous influence on the livelihoods and well-being of pastoralists in the Horn of Africa. Recent advances in climate forecasting technologies have raised the intriguing prospect of reasonably accurate forecasts of coming seasons’ rainfall patterns. We explore the value of such external climate forecast information to pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya using data collected using both open-ended, qualitative methods to identify and understand indigenous climate forecasting methods and quantitative data collected using survey instruments. On balance, climate forecast information does not seem a limiting factor at present in pastoralist communities in the Horn of Africa.

Keywords: early warning systems, livestock, risk, uncertainty, weather