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Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Disaggregate Survey Data

37 Pages Posted: 28 May 2011 Last revised: 13 Apr 2013

Fredrik Wulfsberg

Oslo Business School

Francesco Ravazzolo

Free University of Bolzano

Kjetil Martinsen

Norges Bank

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Date Written: April 7, 2011

Abstract

We assess the forecast ability of Norges Bank’s regional survey for inflation, GDP growth and the unemployment rate in Norway. We propose several factor models based on regional and sectoral information given by the survey. The analysis identifies which information extracted from the ten sectors and the seven regions performs particularly well at forecasting different variables and horizons. Results show that several factor models beat an auto-regressive benchmark in forecasting inflation and unemployment rate. However, the factor models are most successful in forecasting GDP growth. Forecast combinations based on past performances give, in most cases, more accurate forecasts than the benchmark, but they never give the most accurate forecasts.

Keywords: Factor models, macroeconomic forecasting, qualitative survey data

JEL Classification: C53, C80

Suggested Citation

Wulfsberg, Fredrik and Ravazzolo, Francesco and Martinsen, Kjetil, Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables Using Disaggregate Survey Data (April 7, 2011). Norges Bank Working Paper 2011/04 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1847595 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1847595

Fredrik Wulfsberg

Oslo Business School ( email )

Pilestredet 35
Oslo, 0557
Norway

Francesco Ravazzolo (Contact Author)

Free University of Bolzano ( email )

Bolzano
Italy

Kjetil Martinsen

Norges Bank ( email )

P.O. Box 1179
Oslo, N-0107
Norway

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