A Tip of the Iceberg? The Probability of Catching Cartels

36 Pages Posted: 27 May 2011 Last revised: 3 Feb 2013

See all articles by Peter L. Ormosi

Peter L. Ormosi

Norwich Business School; University of East Anglia (UEA) - Centre for Competition Policy; Compass Lexecon

Date Written: November 30, 2012


Reliable estimates of crime detection probabilities could help design better sanctions and improve our understanding of the efficiency of law enforcement. For cartels, we only have limited knowledge on the rate at which these illegal practices are discovered. In comparison to previous works, this paper offers a more parsimonious and simple-to-use method to estimate time-dependent cartel discovery rates, whilst allowing for heterogeneity across …firms. It draws on capture-recapture methods that are frequently used in ecology to make inferences on various wildlife population characteristics. An application of this method provides evidence that less than a …fifth of cartelising firms are discovered.

Keywords: crime detection rate, capture-recapture analysis, cartels, deterrence rate

Suggested Citation

Ormosi, Peter L. and Ormosi, Peter L., A Tip of the Iceberg? The Probability of Catching Cartels (November 30, 2012). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1851309 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1851309

Peter L. Ormosi (Contact Author)

Norwich Business School ( email )

United Kingdom

University of East Anglia (UEA) - Centre for Competition Policy ( email )

Norwich Research Park
Norwich, Norfolk NR47TJ
United Kingdom

Compass Lexecon ( email )

United States

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