Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. And African Agriculture

28 Pages Posted: 31 May 2011 Last revised: 15 Mar 2021

See all articles by Marshall Burke

Marshall Burke

University of California, Berkeley; Stanford University - Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies

John Dykema

affiliation not provided to SSRN

David Lobell

Stanford University

Edward Miguel

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Shanker Satyanath

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics

Date Written: May 2011

Abstract

A growing body of economics research projects the effects of global climate change on economic outcomes. Climate scientists often criticize these articles because nearly all ignore the well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, and therefore appear likely to have downward biased standard errors and potentially misleading point estimates. This paper incorporates climate uncertainty into estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agriculture. Accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much wider range of projected impacts on agricultural profits, with the 95% confidence interval featuring drops of between 17% to 88%. An application to African agriculture yields similar results.

Suggested Citation

Burke, Marshall and Dykema, John and Lobell, David and Miguel, Edward and Satyanath, Shanker, Incorporating Climate Uncertainty into Estimates of Climate Change Impacts, with Applications to U.S. And African Agriculture (May 2011). NBER Working Paper No. w17092, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1854194

Marshall Burke (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

Stanford University - Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

John Dykema

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

No Address Available

David Lobell

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Edward Miguel

University of California, Berkeley - Department of Economics ( email )

549 Evans Hall #3880
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Shanker Satyanath

New York University (NYU) - Wilf Family Department of Politics ( email )

715 Broadway
New York, NY 10003
United States

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