International Transmission of Shocks: A Time-Varying Factor-Augmented VAR Approach to the Open Economy

Abstract

A growing literature has documented changes to the dynamics of key macroeconomic variables in industrialized countries and highlighted the possibility that these variables may react differently to structural shocks over time. However, existing empirical work on the international transmission of shocks largely abstracts from the possibility of changes to the international transmission mechanism across time. In addition, the literature has largely employed small-scale models with limited number of variables. This paper introduces an empirical model which allows the estimation of time-varying response of a large set of domestic variables to foreign money supply, demand and supply shocks. The key results show that a foreign monetary policy tightening resembles the classic beggar-thy-neighbour scenario for the United Kingdom in the period 1975-90. In more recent periods, the response is negative but largely insignificant.

Keywords: factor augmented VAR, time-variation, Gibbs sampling.