Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland

KOF Working Papers No. 281

26 Pages Posted: 31 May 2011

See all articles by Boriss Siliverstovs

Boriss Siliverstovs

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics

Date Written: May 21, 2011

Abstract

This study presents a model that delivers more accurate forecasts of the revised rather initial estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate in Switzerland during the period of the recent financial crisis. The key explanation to our findings is that our model, capitalizing on the information contained in the Business Tendency Surveys, is able to predict future revisions of the initial estimates. Our findings imply that there seems to be a scope for improvement of how preliminary estimates of the quarterly GDP growth rate are produced in Switzerland.

Keywords: GDP revisions, forecasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model

JEL Classification: C53, E37

Suggested Citation

Siliverstovs, Boriss, Are GDP Revisions Predictable? Evidence for Switzerland (May 21, 2011). KOF Working Papers No. 281, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1855726 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1855726

Boriss Siliverstovs (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics ( email )

Mohrenstra├če 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.diw.de/programme/jsp/MA.jsp?language=en&uid=bsiliverstovs

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