Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery

61 Pages Posted: 5 Jun 2011 Last revised: 9 Jun 2011

See all articles by Jonathan Chiu

Jonathan Chiu

Bank of Canada

Thorsten V. Koeppl

Queen's University - Department of Economics

Date Written: April 1, 2011

Abstract

We study the trading dynamics in an asset market where the quality of assets is private information of the owner and finding a counterparty takes time. When trading of a financial asset ceases in equilibrium as a response to an adverse shock to asset quality, a large player can resurrect the market by purchasing bad assets which involves financial losses. The equilibrium response to such a policy is intricate as it creates an announcement effect: a mere announcement of intervening at a later point in time can cause markets to function again. This effect leads to a gradual recovery in trading volume, with asset prices converging non-monotonically to their normal values. The optimal policy is to intervene immediately at a minimal scale when markets are deemed important and losses are small. As losses increase and the importance of the market declines, the optimal intervention is delayed and it can be desirable to rely more on the announcement effect by increasing the size of the intervention. Search frictions are important for all these results. They compound adverse selection, making a market more fragile with respect to a classic lemons problem. They dampen the announcement effect and cause the optimal policy to be more aggressive, leading to an earlier intervention at a larger scale.

Keywords: Trading Dynamics, Adverse Selection, Search, Intervention in Asset Markets, Announcement Effect

JEL Classification: G1, E6

Suggested Citation

Chiu, Jonathan and Koeppl, Thorsten V., Trading Dynamics with Adverse Selection and Search: Market Freeze, Intervention and Recovery (April 1, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1857263 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1857263

Jonathan Chiu (Contact Author)

Bank of Canada ( email )

234 Wellington St.
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0G9
Canada

Thorsten V. Koeppl

Queen's University - Department of Economics ( email )

99 University Avenue
Kingston K7L 3N6, Ontario
Canada

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