Should Transportation Output Be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System?

44 Pages Posted: 6 Jun 2011

See all articles by Kajal Lahiri

Kajal Lahiri

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics

Vincent Yao

Georgia State University - J. Mack Robinson College of Business

Date Written: May 31, 2011

Abstract

With the increasing importance of the service-providing sectors, information from these sectors has become essential to the understanding of contemporary business cycles. This paper explores the usefulness of the transportation services output index (TSI) as an additional coincident indicator in determining the peaks and troughs of U.S. economy. The index represents a service sector that plays a central role in facilitating economic activities between sectors and across regions, and can be useful in monitoring the current state of the economy. We evaluate the marginal contribution of the TSI in identifying cyclical turning points in the context of four currently used NBER indicators. The TSI is found to have advantages over the composite index of coincident indicators in identifying turning points, and has been of critical importance in recent recessions.

Keywords: transportation services index (TSI), business cycles, coincident indicators

JEL Classification: E320, C100

Suggested Citation

Lahiri, Kajal and Yao, Vincent, Should Transportation Output Be Included as Part of the Coincident Indicators System? (May 31, 2011). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3477. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1858665

Kajal Lahiri (Contact Author)

State University of New York (SUNY) at Albany, College of Arts and Sciences, Economics ( email )

Department of Economics
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY 12222
United States
518-442 4758 (Phone)
518-442 4736 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.albany.edu/~klahiri

Vincent Yao

Georgia State University - J. Mack Robinson College of Business ( email )

35 Broad Street
Atlanta, GA 30303-3083
United States

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