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Health Employment, Medical Spending, and Long Term Health Reform

Presented at CESifo Area Conference on Public Sector Economics, April 2011

CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3481

32 Pages Posted: 8 Jun 2011  

Mark V. Pauly

University of Pennsylvania - Health Care Systems Department; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Anand Saxena

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School

Date Written: August 11, 2011

Abstract

This paper explores the relationships between the growth in the medical workforce in an aging society and employment in other sectors of the economy, based on data from the United States since 1985. Employment in medical services grew, but did not displace employment in other sectors uniformly. Instead, regression analysis shows that medical workforce growth produced contemporaneous reductions in relative employment in the manufacturing, construction, and information sectors, while being associated with growth in other services and public administration. Import penetration and productivity growth mattered, but much of the displacement remains even after controlling for these factors.

JEL Classification: I100

Suggested Citation

Pauly, Mark V. and Saxena, Anand, Health Employment, Medical Spending, and Long Term Health Reform (August 11, 2011). Presented at CESifo Area Conference on Public Sector Economics, April 2011; CESifo Working Paper Series No. 3481. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1860043

Mark V. Pauly (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - Health Care Systems Department ( email )

3641 Locust Walk
208 Colonial Penn Center
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6358
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Anand Saxena

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )

3641 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States

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