Electoral Hurdles and Rainbow Coalitions in Black Descriptive Representation in Local Legislatures: Detecting Asymmetric Conditions in Equifinal Data

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamics of black descriptive representation from 1980 to 2000 in city councils and school boards, employing interactive variables to closely mirror the process for determining the number of elected legislators. Our key methodological contribution is to expand qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) measures of necessity and sufficiency to any shape of statistical function, thus, bridging set theoretic and quantitative methods using the rules of philosophic logic. The data enable side-by-side empirical methodological comparison of the results of OLS linear regression with the results of our proposed method of asymmetrical statistical analysis and yield substantive insights about the efficacy of rainbow coalitions to elect local black representatives. Also, we present a precise definition of minority group representational hurdle and voting age population (VAP) seats as unit of analysis for analyzing legislative representation. Jurisdictions exhibit different propensities for rainbow coalitions to form and for which electoral method is optimal for electing black representatives. This variation and our finding of overall black descriptive under-representation provide support for individual scrutiny of cases of under-representation via Congressional re-enactment of a Voting Rights Act section 4 preclearance measure.

Keywords: Asymmetric statistics, sufficiency, necessity, QCA measures for any functional shape, Voting Rights Act, Minority Representation, Electoral Methods, Section 5 Preclearance Clause, Minority Legislative Representation, Local legislatures, black descriptive representation, rainbow voting coalitions