The ACEGES Laboratory for Energy Policy: Exploring the Production of Crude Oil

Energy Policy, 2011

Posted: 11 Jun 2011

See all articles by Vlasios Voudouris

Vlasios Voudouris

ABM Analytics Ltd

Dimitrios Stasinopoulos

London Metropolitan University

Robert Rigby

London Metropolitan University

Carlo Di Maio

Bocconi University

Date Written: May 31, 2011

Abstract

An agent-based computational laboratory for exploratory energy policy by means of controlled computational experiments is proposed. It is termed the ACEGES (agent-based computational economics of the global energy system). In particular, it is shown how agent-based modelling and simulation can be applied to understand better the challenging outlook for oil production by accounting for uncertainties in resource estimates, demand growth, production growth and peak/decline point. The approach emphasises the idea that the oil system is better modelled not as black-box abode of ‘the invisible hand’ but as a complex system whose macroscopic explananda emerges from the interactions of its constituent components. Given the estimated volumes of oil originally present before any extraction, simulations show that on average the world peak of crude oil production may happen in the broad vicinity of the time region between 2008 and 2027. Using the proposed petroleum market diversity, the market diversity weakness rapidly towards the peak year.

Keywords: Oil depletion, Oil scenario generation, ACEGES

JEL Classification: Q4, Q41

Suggested Citation

Voudouris, Vlasios and Stasinopoulos, Dimitrios and Rigby, Robert and Di Maio, Carlo, The ACEGES Laboratory for Energy Policy: Exploring the Production of Crude Oil (May 31, 2011). Energy Policy, 2011, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1860464

Vlasios Voudouris (Contact Author)

ABM Analytics Ltd ( email )

Suite 17 125
145-157 St John Street
London, EC1V 4PW
United Kingdom

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Dimitrios Stasinopoulos

London Metropolitan University ( email )

166-220 Holloway Road
London EC3N 2EY, N7 8HN
United Kingdom

Robert Rigby

London Metropolitan University ( email )

166-220 Holloway Road
London EC3N 2EY, N7 8HN
United Kingdom

Carlo Di Maio

Bocconi University ( email )

Via Sarfatti, 25
Milan, MI 20136
Italy

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