The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public’s Expectations Vary Over Time and Across Socio-Economic Groups

CentER Working Paper Series No. 2011-065

31 Pages Posted: 9 Jun 2011

See all articles by Luc Bissonnette

Luc Bissonnette

Université Laval

Arthur van Soest

Tilburg University; Netspar; RAND Corporation; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Date Written: June 3, 2011

Abstract

We analyze expectations of the Dutch population of ages 25 and older concerning the future generosity state and occupational pensions, the two main pillars of the Dutch pension system. Since the summer of 2006, monthly survey data were collected on the expectations of Dutch households concerning purchasing power of occupational pensions, eligibility and purchasing power of old age social security benefits, and the average retirement age ten or twenty years from now. We investigate how these expectations have changed over time and how they vary with socio-economic characteristics. Exploiting the fact that we have data until September 2010, we also analyze the effect of the recent financial and economic crisis. We find significant differences in expectations of different socio-economic groups, mainly suggesting that groups who are probably better informed were also more pessimistic.

Keywords: subjective probabilities, old age social security, occupational pensions

JEL Classification: D84, H55, J26

Suggested Citation

Bissonnette, Luc and van Soest, Arthur H. O. and van Soest, Arthur H. O., The Future of Retirement and the Pension System: How the Public’s Expectations Vary Over Time and Across Socio-Economic Groups (June 3, 2011). CentER Working Paper Series No. 2011-065, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1860958 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1860958

Luc Bissonnette (Contact Author)

Université Laval ( email )

Université Laval, Pavillon J-A-DeSève, #2264
Québec, Quebec G1K 7P4 G1V0A6
Canada

Arthur H. O. van Soest

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC Noord-Brabant 5000 LE
Netherlands

Netspar

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

RAND Corporation ( email )

P.O. Box 2138
1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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