17 Pages Posted: 10 Jun 2011 Last revised: 20 Jun 2011
Date Written: 2011
So far various attempts have been taken to project the population in India at national level as well as at state level. EAG states contributing more to the size of national population as these are most populous states in India. Therefore, to achieve the target of population stabilization by 2045, as stated in NPP, the major focus is on these eight EAG states and their performances. An attempt has been taken in this paper to project the population of eight EAG states of India under three alternative assumptions (replacement fertility, medium and low variant) until 2051. The main purpose behind this exercise is to have an idea about population of these most populous states and its composition. Attempt has also been taken to see the implication of the changes in age-sex composition of the population. The total population will be doubled in 2051 in the all the EAG states under all three assumptions. Under medium and low variant assumption, the total population will be double in 2051 in all EAG states except Orissa. Orissa is the only state which has lowest TFR as of now, even then the population will increase by 24 percent from 2001 under the low variant assumption and it will be more than 30 percent by the year 2051 in medium variant and high variant or replacement fertility assumption. In 2051, there will be increase in the size of the child population aged zero to four years in all the EAG states except Orissa under replacement fertility or high variant scenario. It is found that the child population will increase in 2051 in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttaranchal, while it will decrease in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Orissa under medium variant projection. Though child population will decrease in all EAG states in 2051 in low variant assumption, compared to other states, Uttar Pradesh will still contribute more to the child population. The same results have been found for the school-going population aged 5-14 years also. The size of female population of reproductive age group will be more in all the EAG states under all assumptions. Even in low variant assumption, in Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar there will be more than 50 percent increase in female population aged 15-49. Under the same assumption, the female population aged 15-49 will increase by more than 40 percent in Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Uttaranchal. Only Orissa will have less proportion of female in reproductive ages in all the assumptions. A huge increase in the size of elderly population aged 65 years and above will be seen in 2051 under all the projection scenario. Bihar and Jharkhand will have more proportion of elderly population compare to other states. In Bihar the size of elderly will be six times higher than what it was in 2001 and for Jharkhand there will be 7 times increase, though in absolute number the elderly population will be more in Uttar Pradesh in all the projection assumptions.
Keywords: population projection, EAG states, dependency ratio, elderly population, child population
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By James Feyrer