Exploring the Foreclosure Contagion Effect Using Agent-Based Modeling
Posted: 22 Jun 2011
Date Written: June 20, 2011
Over the last several years, the United States has experienced a significant recession. During this downturn, the number of real estate foreclosures has risen drastically. Recent studies have demonstrated a reduction in property values due to neighboring foreclosures – known as the foreclosure contagion effect. This study uses an agent-based modeling approach to explore market-wide emergent behavior that results from the interconnected property-agent behavior. Specifically, we find that the magnitude of the foreclosure contagion effect is a less powerful cause of eventual market collapse than the time a foreclosed property is allowed to linger on the market. This is important because disposition time is much easier to address from a policymaker perspective than is the strength of the foreclosure contagion effect.
Keywords: foreclosure contagion effect, disposition time, agent-based modeling
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