Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market?

43 Pages Posted: 25 Jun 2011

See all articles by Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger

Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger

Tilburg University (CentER) - Department of Economics; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Ronald Mahieu

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research, Econometrics and Finance Group; TiasNimbas Business School

Louis Raes

Tilburg University; Tilburg University - European Banking Center

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: June 2011

Abstract

Deliberately or not, by providing its stance on the prospects of the economy, rationalizing past decisions or announcing future actions, central banks influence financial markets' expectations of its future policy. In bad times, monetary policy communication inducing an upward revision of the path of future policy is good news for stocks. During an expansion the effect is weak and on average negative. The response of equities to central bank talk depends critically on the business cycle. There are strong industry specific effects of monetary policy actions and communication. These industry effects relate to the variation in cyclicality of different industries. Firm-specific effects of monetary policy relate to the leverage, the size and the price-earnings ratio of firms.

Keywords: business cycle, credit channel, monetary policy, monetary policy announcements, stock market

JEL Classification: E44, E52, G14

Suggested Citation

Eijffinger, Sylvester C. W. and Mahieu, Ronald J. and Raes, Louis, Can the Fed Talk the Hind Legs Off the Stock Market? (June 2011). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP8450, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1871561

Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger (Contact Author)

Tilburg University (CentER) - Department of Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2411 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3042 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Ronald J. Mahieu

Tilburg University - Center for Economic Research, Econometrics and Finance Group ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands
+31 13 466 2430 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3280 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://center.uvt.nl/staff/mahieu/

TiasNimbas Business School ( email )

Warandelaan 2
Tilburg, North-Brabant 5071HS
Netherlands

Louis Raes

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC Noord-Brabant 5000 LE
Netherlands

Tilburg University - European Banking Center ( email )

PO Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
3
Abstract Views
629
PlumX Metrics