How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

50 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Phillippe G. Leite

Phillippe G. Leite

World Bank - Research Department

Ambar Narayan

World Bank, Poverty Global Practice

Emmanuel Skoufias

World Bank

Date Written: June 1, 2011

Abstract

This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.

Keywords: Poverty Monitoring & Analysis, Scientific Research & Science Parks, Science Education, Youth and Governance, Primary Education

Suggested Citation

Leite, Phillippe G. and Narayan, Ambar and Skoufias, Emmanuel, How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs (June 1, 2011). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5705, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1871601

Phillippe G. Leite (Contact Author)

World Bank - Research Department ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Ambar Narayan

World Bank, Poverty Global Practice ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Emmanuel Skoufias

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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