The Volatility Behavior and Dependence Structure of Commodity Futures and Stocks

Abstract

This paper finds substantial risk diversification potential between certain commodity groups and stocks by exploring the dependence between their patterns of regime switching. None of the commodity groups share a common volatility regime with stocks, nor are the regime switching patterns of grains, industrials, metals, or softs, dependent on that of stocks. Simultaneous volatile regimes of commodity futures and stocks tend to be infrequent and short-lived. In addition, in spite of financial contagion, animal products, grains, and softs typically demonstrate very low correlations with stocks even in simultaneous volatile regimes.

Keywords: stocks, commodity futures, regime switching, volatility, correlation, diversification

JEL Classification: C22, G11, G12, G13