Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market
FCN Working Paper No. 12/2011
19 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2011
Date Written: May 2011
Forecasts of power production are necessary for the electricity market participation of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Deviations from the production schedule may lead to penalty charges. the mitigation impact on deviation penalties of an electricity production forecasting tool for Therefore, the accuracy of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is an important issue. This paper elaborates the 50 MWel parabolic trough plant Andasol 3 in Spain. A commercial DNI model output statistics (MOS) forecast for the period July 2007 to December 2009 is assessed and compared to the two-day persistence approach, which assumes yesterday’s weather conditions and electricity generation also for the following day. Forecasts are analyzed both with meteorological forecast verification methods and from the perspective of a power plant operator. Using MOS, penalty charges in the study period are reduced by 47.6% compared to the persistence case. Finally, typical error patterns of DNI forecasts and their financial impact are discussed.
Keywords: direct normal irradiance, DNI, irradiance forecast, model output statistics, production forecast, CSP-FoSyS, CSP, Andasol, plant simulation, renewable energy
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation