Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market

FCN Working Paper No. 12/2011

19 Pages Posted: 29 Jun 2011

See all articles by Birk Kraas

Birk Kraas

Solar Millennium AG

Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt

German Aerospace Center - German Remote Sensing Data Center,

Benedikt Pulvermüller

Solar Millennium AG

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University

Date Written: May 2011

Abstract

Forecasts of power production are necessary for the electricity market participation of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. Deviations from the production schedule may lead to penalty charges. the mitigation impact on deviation penalties of an electricity production forecasting tool for Therefore, the accuracy of direct normal irradiance (DNI) forecasts is an important issue. This paper elaborates the 50 MWel parabolic trough plant Andasol 3 in Spain. A commercial DNI model output statistics (MOS) forecast for the period July 2007 to December 2009 is assessed and compared to the two-day persistence approach, which assumes yesterday’s weather conditions and electricity generation also for the following day. Forecasts are analyzed both with meteorological forecast verification methods and from the perspective of a power plant operator. Using MOS, penalty charges in the study period are reduced by 47.6% compared to the persistence case. Finally, typical error patterns of DNI forecasts and their financial impact are discussed.

Keywords: direct normal irradiance, DNI, irradiance forecast, model output statistics, production forecast, CSP-FoSyS, CSP, Andasol, plant simulation, renewable energy

Suggested Citation

Kraas, Birk and Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion and Pulvermüller, Benedikt and Madlener, Reinhard, Economic Assessment of a Concentrating Solar Power Forecasting System for Participation in the Spanish Electricity Market (May 2011). FCN Working Paper No. 12/2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1874063 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1874063

Birk Kraas (Contact Author)

Solar Millennium AG ( email )

Nägelsbachstraße 40
Erlangen, 91052
Germany

Marion Schroedter-Homscheidt

German Aerospace Center - German Remote Sensing Data Center, ( email )

Münchner Straße 20
Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling, 82334
Germany

Benedikt Pulvermüller

Solar Millennium AG ( email )

Nägelsbachstraße 40
Erlangen, 91052
Germany

Reinhard Madlener

RWTH Aachen University ( email )

School of Business and Economics / E.ON ERC
Mathieustraße 10
Aachen, 52074
Germany
+49 241 80 49 820 (Phone)
+49 241 80 49 829 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de/fcn

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