Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy: A Participatory Approach

Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 248-260, 2009

13 Pages Posted: 4 Jul 2011

See all articles by Ronal Gainza

Ronal Gainza

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Juan-Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera

Wageningen University - Social Sciences, Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group

Philippe Thalmann

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne - Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)

J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

Date Written: July 4, 2008

Abstract

We performed a study to define the key elements of feasible global climate policy scenarios for the post-2012 UNFCCC regime by contacting - through a series of questionnaires -149 stakeholders involved in climate-change discussions. We applied a Multiple Correspondence Analysis to the results. We then classified the stakeholders' views into three main groups which we associate with scenarios for post-2012 climate policy. Further, we identified three points with wide consensus among the stakeholders: (i) 2013 is the most likely starting point for the next climate agreement, (ii) flexibility mechanisms will most probably be pursued, and (iii) technology and financial transfers to developing countries are likely to be used as incentives for these countries to undertake a more meaningful climate policy. We found that the type of target for the United States largely determined the type of scenario the stakeholders' envisaged for the post-2012 climate regime. Finally, we can associate stakeholders with a certain scenario taking into consideration their experience in climate change negotiations.

Keywords: international climate policy, post-Kyoto, climate negociations

Suggested Citation

Gainza, Ronal and Altamirano-Cabrera, Juan-Carlos and Thalmann, Philippe and Carrasco-Terceros, J. Luis, Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Post-2012 Climate Policy: A Participatory Approach (July 4, 2008). Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol. 3, No. 3, pp. 248-260, 2009, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1878508

Ronal Gainza

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Juan-Carlos Altamirano-Cabrera

Wageningen University - Social Sciences, Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group ( email )

De Leeuwenborch
Hollandseweg 1
6706 KN Wageningen
Netherlands

Philippe Thalmann (Contact Author)

Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne - Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) ( email )

EPFL ENAC IA LEURE
Station 16
Lausanne, CH-1015
Switzerland
+41 21 693 7321 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://people.epfl.ch/philippe.thalmann

J. Luis Carrasco-Terceros

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne ( email )

Station 5
Odyssea 1.04
1015 Lausanne, CH-1015
Switzerland

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