Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect

46 Pages Posted: 5 Jul 2011

See all articles by Kevin D. Hoover

Kevin D. Hoover

Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy

Warren Young

Bar-Ilan University - Department of Economics

Date Written: May 30, 2011

Abstract

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth’s “Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements” (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touches on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including: its history, starting with Muth’s work at Carnegie Tech; its methodological role; applications to policy; its relationship to behavioral economics; its role in the recent financial crisis; and its likely future.

Keywords: rational expectations, John F. Muth, macroeconomics, dynamics, macroeconomic policy, behavioral economics, efficient markets

JEL Classification: B22, B31, B26, E17

Suggested Citation

Hoover, Kevin D. and Young, Warren, Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect (May 30, 2011). Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1879245 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1879245

Kevin D. Hoover (Contact Author)

Duke University - Departments of Economics and Philosophy ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

Warren Young

Bar-Ilan University - Department of Economics ( email )

Ramat-Gan, 52900
Israel
03-531 8947 (Phone)

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
466
Abstract Views
2,394
rank
60,492
PlumX Metrics