61 Pages Posted: 6 Jul 2011
Date Written: July 6, 2011
For the last two decades, MED11 countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Autonomy, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) have recorded the highest growth rate in inbound world tourism. In the same time, domestic tourism in these countries was growing very fast. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing in light of the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties of the region. The last financial crisis had no severe consequences on this development, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the MED 11 countries in this sector. This trend was abruptly halted in early 2011 during the Arab Spring, but could resume when the situation stabilizes. This paper questions whether this trend will continue in the period up to 2030 and, for that, provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in MED11 for 2030: (i) reference scenario, (ii) common sustainable development scenario, (iii) polarized (regional) development scenario and (iv) failed development - decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourism arrivals will grow. However, security and adjustment to climate change remain the main factors that will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in MED11 countries.
Keywords: Mediterranean, domestic tourism, international tourism, security, climate change, tourism indicators, tourism's economic contribution, tourism competitiveness, tourism prospective, tourism scenarios
JEL Classification: D12, D60, E27, F47, H54, O53, O55
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation