When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for the People’s Republic of China

51 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2011

See all articles by Barry Eichengreen

Barry Eichengreen

University of California, Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research

Kwanho Shin

Korea University

Date Written: June 1, 2011

Abstract

Using international data starting 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that the People’s Republic of China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.

Keywords: economic growth, slowdown, deceleration, development, economics working paper no. 26, People's Republic of China2

JEL Classification: F00, O10, O4

Suggested Citation

Eichengreen, Barry and Park, Donghyun and Shin, Kwanho, When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for the People’s Republic of China (June 1, 2011). Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 262, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1883962 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1883962

Barry Eichengreen (Contact Author)

University of California, Berkeley ( email )

310 Barrows Hall
Berkeley, CA 94720
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Donghyun Park

Asian Development Bank - Economic Research ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Kwanho Shin

Korea University ( email )

1 Anam-dong 5 ka
Sunbuk-Ku, Department of Economics
Seoul 136-701
Korea
82-2-3290-2220 (Phone)
82-2-3290-2719 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: econ.korea.ac.kr/~khshin

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