Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: A General Equilibrium Analysis

31 Pages Posted: 12 Jul 2011

See all articles by Vladimir Borgy

Vladimir Borgy

Banque de France

Xavier Chojnicki

University of Lille

Gilles Le Garrec

Observatoire Fran├žais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE)

Cyrille Schwellnus

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)

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Date Written: July 2011

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of endogenous migration flows over the coming decades in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy. Such an approach has two major benefits. First, it offers a global perspective on the economic consequences of international migration flows by taking into account effects on both the destination and the origin regions. Second, by allowing migration flows to be related to economic fundamentals, they are determined endogenously in the model. We proceed by estimating the determinants of migration in an econometric model and then endogenizing migration flows by introducing the estimated relationships between demographic and income developments in our world model. We show that (i) migration could have a substantial impact on GDP growth in sending and destination regions; (ii) endogenizing migration induces important changes in the volume and the distribution of migration flows between regions compared to the United-Nations projections; (iii) the size of these flows, although substantial, will not be sufficient to counteract the impact of population aging in the receiving regions.

Keywords: CGEM, migration, international capital flows

JEL Classification: F21, C68, J61, H55

Suggested Citation

Borgy, Vladimir and Chojnicki, Xavier and Le Garrec, Gilles and Schwellnus, Cyrille, Macroeconomic Consequences of Global Endogenous Migration: A General Equilibrium Analysis (July 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1884094 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1884094

Vladimir Borgy (Contact Author)

Banque de France ( email )

Paris
France

Xavier Chojnicki

University of Lille ( email )

Lille
France

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/xchojnicki/

Gilles Le Garrec

Observatoire Fran├žais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) ( email )

69 Quai d'Orsay
Paris 75004
France

Cyrille Schwellnus

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) ( email )

2 rue Andre Pascal
Paris Cedex 16, 75775
France

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