Dating Business Cycles in a Historical Perspective: Evidence for Switzerland

KOF working papers / KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich; 284

23 Pages Posted: 15 Jul 2011

See all articles by Boriss Siliverstovs

Boriss Siliverstovs

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics

Date Written: July 4, 2011

Abstract

In this study we suggest a chronology of the classical business cycle in Switzerland. To this end we use two approaches: the approach of Artis et al. (2004) and an approach based on Markov-switching models (Hamilton, 1989). Our results show that similar conclusions can be reached by applying the two methodologies. Another result is that the chronology obtained displays high concordance with the chronology derived for the Euro Area by the CEPR Business Cycle Dating Committee. A further contribution of our study is that we determine the sensitivity of the chronology obtained with respect to a particular GDP vintage used. For this purpose we employ the real-time database that contains 53 vintages of GDP data starting from 1997Q4 until 2010Q4. The main result of this robustness exercise is that the chronology obtained is stable across different vintages, although some minor differences across vintages can be detected.

Keywords: classical business cycle, turning points, GDP revisions, Switzerland

JEL Classification: E32, C22

Suggested Citation

Siliverstovs, Boriss, Dating Business Cycles in a Historical Perspective: Evidence for Switzerland (July 4, 2011). KOF working papers / KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich; 284, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1886347 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1886347

Boriss Siliverstovs (Contact Author)

German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) - Department of International Economics ( email )

Mohrenstra├če 58
Berlin, 10117
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.diw.de/programme/jsp/MA.jsp?language=en&uid=bsiliverstovs

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