Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China, India and Pakistan

Posted: 30 Jul 2011

See all articles by Misbah Tanveer Choudhry

Misbah Tanveer Choudhry

Centre for Research on Economic Empowerment of South Asian Women (CREESAW)

J. Paul Elhorst

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business

Date Written: 2010

Abstract

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow-Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961-2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961-2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005-2050, and a negative effect in China.

Keywords: Demographic transition, Population distribution, Dependency burden

JEL Classification: J11, J21, E21

Suggested Citation

Choudhry, Misbah Tanveer and Elhorst, J. Paul, Demographic Transition and Economic Growth in China, India and Pakistan (2010). Economic Systems, Vol. 34, No. 3, 2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1898690

Misbah Tanveer Choudhry (Contact Author)

Centre for Research on Economic Empowerment of South Asian Women (CREESAW) ( email )

157-Bradley Road
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HOME PAGE: http://www.creesaw.org

J. Paul Elhorst

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

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Netherlands
050-363 3893 (Phone)
050-363 7337 (Fax)

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