41 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2011 Last revised: 6 Dec 2011
Date Written: December 2011
Does fiscal consolidation lead to social unrest? Using cross-country evidence for the period 1919 to 2008, we examine the extent to which societies become unstable after budget cuts. The results show a clear correlation between fiscal retrenchment and instability. We test if the relationship simply reflects economic downturns, and conclude that this is not the case. While autocracies and democracies show a broadly similar responses to budget cuts, countries with more constraints on the executive are less likely to see unrest after austerity measures. Growing media penetration does not strengthen the effect of cut-backs on the level of unrest.
Keywords: demonstrations, Europe, government deficits, instability, public expenditure, riots, unrest
JEL Classification: H40, H50, H60, N14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Ponticelli, Jacopo and Voth, Hans-Joachim, Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2008 (December 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1899287 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1899287