The Conflict Trap

31 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2011 Last revised: 25 Aug 2011

See all articles by Haavard Hegre

Haavard Hegre

University of Oslo - Department of Political Science

Havard Strand

University of Oslo

Scott Gates

Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ; University of Oslo

Havard Mokleiv Nygard

University of Oslo

Date Written: 2011

Abstract

Several studies indicate that internal armed conflict breeds conflict. Armed conflict creates conditions that increase the chances of war breaking out again. This 'conflict trap' works through several channels: Conflicts (1) polarize populations and create deep resentments and build up the organizational capacity for future warfare, (2) undermine democratic political institutions, and (3) exacerbate the conditions that favor insurgency by increasing poverty, causing capital flight, destabilizing neighboring countries etc. This study quanti es the total e ect of the conflict trap more precisely than in earlier studies by means of a transition model and extensive use of simulations to estimate the total e ect over long time periods and across countries.

Keywords: civil war, conflict trap, conflict recurrence, simulations, consequences of conflict

JEL Classification: C15, D74

Suggested Citation

Hegre, Haavard and Strand, Havard and Gates, Scott and Nygard, Havard Mokleiv, The Conflict Trap (2011). APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1900679

Haavard Hegre (Contact Author)

University of Oslo - Department of Political Science ( email )

Moltke Moesvei 31
Olso, 0851
Norway

Havard Strand

University of Oslo ( email )

PO Box 6706 St Olavs plass
Oslo, N-0317
Norway

Scott Gates

Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) ( email )

N-0260 Oslo
Norway
+472547732 (Phone)
+4722547701 (Fax)

University of Oslo

PO Box 6706 St Olavs plass
Oslo, N-0317
Norway

Havard Mokleiv Nygard

University of Oslo ( email )

PO Box 6706 St Olavs plass
Oslo, N-0317
Norway

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
223
Abstract Views
1,099
rank
135,339
PlumX Metrics