The Conflict Trap
31 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2011 Last revised: 25 Aug 2011
Date Written: 2011
Several studies indicate that internal armed conflict breeds conflict. Armed conflict creates conditions that increase the chances of war breaking out again. This 'conflict trap' works through several channels: Conflicts (1) polarize populations and create deep resentments and build up the organizational capacity for future warfare, (2) undermine democratic political institutions, and (3) exacerbate the conditions that favor insurgency by increasing poverty, causing capital flight, destabilizing neighboring countries etc. This study quanties the total eect of the conflict trap more precisely than in earlier studies by means of a transition model and extensive use of simulations to estimate the total eect over long time periods and across countries.
Keywords: civil war, conflict trap, conflict recurrence, simulations, consequences of conflict
JEL Classification: C15, D74
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation