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The Only Player in Town: A Formal Explanation of the Maintenance and Erosion of the Unity of a Dominant Party's Elite

43 Pages Posted: 1 Aug 2011 Last revised: 28 Feb 2012

Sebastian Garrido de Sierra

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Political Science

Date Written: 2011

Abstract

This paper proposes a sequential game between two party factions -- the ruling and minority factions - to analyze under which circumstances the leaders of an authoritarian dominant party might prefer to remain united, when will they opt to defect or expel other factions from the party, and what might be the consequences of this process. The model confirms that a dominant party is likely to remain united when all its factions receive a high absolute payoff, as has been already proposed by Geddes. However, the game reveals that this same result might take place even if the minority faction receives a low absolute payoff, largely because the ruling faction can decrease the former's chances of improving its payoff in other parties through the use of repression. Given this distinction, two concrete causal mechanisms are derived from the model to explain why the minority faction might leave the dominant party, and when this might happen. The game also reveals why different types of defections might affect in distinct ways the prospects of survival of a dominant party.

Keywords: authoritarian regimes, single-party regimes, dominant-party regimes, transition

Suggested Citation

Garrido de Sierra, Sebastian, The Only Player in Town: A Formal Explanation of the Maintenance and Erosion of the Unity of a Dominant Party's Elite (2011). APSA 2011 Annual Meeting Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1902584

Sebastian Garrido de Sierra (Contact Author)

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Department of Political Science ( email )

Los Angeles, CA
United States

HOME PAGE: http://segasi.bol.ucla.edu/

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