The Natural Disaster Vulnerability Evaluation Model (NDVE-Model): An Application to the Northeast Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 2011

26 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2011

See all articles by Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada

University of Malaya (UM) - Faculty of Economics & Administration (FEA)

Donghyun Park

Nanyang Technological University (NTU); Asian Development Bank

Date Written: August 8, 2011

Abstract

The natural disasters have a potentially large impact on economic growth but measuring their economic impact is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The central objective of our paper is to set forth a model – the natural disasters vulnerability evaluation (NDVE) model – to evaluate the impact of natural disasters on GDP growth. The model is based on three basic indicators – (i) the natural disasters vulnerability propensity rate (Ω); (ii) the natural disaster devastation magnitude rate (Π); and (iii) economic desgrowth rate (δ). In addition, this model is based on chaos theory and risk complexity analysis framework. We apply the NDVE-Model to the Northeast Japan earthquake and tsunami of March 2011 to evaluate its impact on the Japanese economy.

Keywords: Natural Disaster, Economic Desgrowth, Japan

JEL Classification: Q54, O40

Suggested Citation

Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo and Park, Donghyun, The Natural Disaster Vulnerability Evaluation Model (NDVE-Model): An Application to the Northeast Japan Earthquake and Tsunami of March 2011 (August 8, 2011). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1906936 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1906936

Mario Arturo Ruiz Estrada (Contact Author)

University of Malaya (UM) - Faculty of Economics & Administration (FEA) ( email )

Kuala Lumpur, 50603
Malaysia
+60126850293 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://ssrc.um.edu.my/

Donghyun Park

Nanyang Technological University (NTU) ( email )

S3 B2-A28 Nanyang Avenue
Singapore, 639798
Singapore

Asian Development Bank

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

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