Cyclical Fluctuations in the Mediterranean Basin

42 Pages Posted: 19 Aug 2011

See all articles by Fabio Canova

Fabio Canova

BI Norwegian Business School

Matteo Ciccarelli

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: August 15, 2011


We investigate the similarities of macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin and their convergence. A model with three indicators, covering the West, the East and the MENA portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since the early 1980. Convergence and divergence coexist in the region and are reversible. Except for the West, domestic cyclical fluctuations are still due to national and idiosyncratic causes. The outlook for the next few years looks rosier for the MENA and the East blocks than for the West.

Keywords: Bayesian Methods, Business Cycles, Mediterranean Basin, Developing and Developed Countries

JEL Classification: C11, C33, E32

Suggested Citation

Canova, Fabio and Ciccarelli, Matteo, Cyclical Fluctuations in the Mediterranean Basin (August 15, 2011). ECB Working Paper No. 1367, Available at SSRN: or

Fabio Canova (Contact Author)

BI Norwegian Business School ( email )

Nydalsveien 37
Oslo, 0442

Matteo Ciccarelli

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314

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