The Supreme Subprime Myth: The Role of Bad Loans in the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis

PSL Quarterly Review, Vol. 65, No. 260, 2012

27 Pages Posted: 23 Aug 2011 Last revised: 11 Oct 2011

See all articles by Francesco Marchionne

Francesco Marchionne

Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Business Economics & Public Policy; Università Politecnica delle Marche - Department of Economics

Alberto Niccoli

Università Politecnica delle Marche and MoFiR

Date Written: October 7, 2011

Abstract

Using simulations, we show that the probability of default and losses given default of subprime mortgage loans are small in comparison to their interest rates. The implication is that these loans are profitable for risk neutral efficient banks. As subprime mortgages remain a good investment even for higher values of probability of default and losses given default, our conclusion is that they did not trigger the 2007-2009 financial crisis. In contrast with other papers, this finding does not derive from analyses relating to the subprime market size, but from the positive ex-ante net present value of their discounted cash flows.

Keywords: subprime mortgages, interest rates, probability of default, loss given default

JEL Classification: G01, G11, G21, G32

Suggested Citation

Marchionne, Francesco and Niccoli, Alberto, The Supreme Subprime Myth: The Role of Bad Loans in the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis (October 7, 2011). PSL Quarterly Review, Vol. 65, No. 260, 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1915142

Francesco Marchionne (Contact Author)

Indiana University - Kelley School of Business - Department of Business Economics & Public Policy ( email )

1309 East Tenth Street
Bloomington, IN 47405-1701
United States
01 812 855-3756 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://kelley.iu.edu/BEPP/Faculty/page14113.cfm?ID=47081

Università Politecnica delle Marche - Department of Economics ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
Ancona, 60121
Italy
+39 071 2207120 (Phone)

Alberto Niccoli

Università Politecnica delle Marche and MoFiR ( email )

Piazzale Martelli, 8
60121 Ancona
Italy

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