The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes

33 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2000

See all articles by Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

J. Spencer Martin

University of Melbourne - Faculty of Business and Economics; Financial Research Network (FIRN)

Robert S. Goldstein

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Carlson School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Abstract

Using straight industrial bonds with quoted prices, we investigate the determinants of credit spread changes. We find the variables that should in theory determine credit spread changes in fact have limited explanatory power. Further, the residuals from this first-pass regression are highly cross-correlated, and principal components analysis strongly suggests they are driven by a single common factor. We investigate several macro-economic and financial variables as candidate proxies for this factor. We cannot, however, find any set of variables which explain this common systematic factor. Our results suggest the corporate bond market is a segmented market driven by corporate bond specific supply/demand shocks.

JEL Classification: G12

Suggested Citation

Collin-Dufresne, Pierre and Martin, J. Spencer and Goldstein, Robert S., The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=191668 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.191668

Pierre Collin-Dufresne

Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne ( email )

Quartier UNIL-Dorigny, Bâtiment Extranef, # 211
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
CH-1015 Lausanne, CH-6900
Switzerland

Swiss Finance Institute

c/o University of Geneva
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
CH-1211 Geneva 4
Switzerland

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

J. Spencer Martin (Contact Author)

University of Melbourne - Faculty of Business and Economics ( email )

Faculty of Economics and Commerce
Parkville, Victoria 3010 3010
Australia

Financial Research Network (FIRN)

C/- University of Queensland Business School
St Lucia, 4071 Brisbane
Queensland
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.firn.org.au

Robert S. Goldstein

University of Minnesota - Twin Cities - Carlson School of Management ( email )

19th Avenue South
Minneapolis, MN 55455
United States
612-624-8581 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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