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Extreme Correlation of Stock and Bond Futures Markets: International Evidence

Working paper, July 2011

45 Pages Posted: 2 Sep 2011 Last revised: 26 Sep 2011

Chin Man Chui

Xiamen University - Institute for Financial and Accounting Studies

Jian Yang

University of Colorado at Denver - Business School

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 1, 2011

Abstract

Using daily stock and bond futures data of three developed markets (the U.S., the UK and Germany), this study explores time-varying extreme correlation of stock-bond futures markets. There is evidence of positive extreme correlation between stock and bond futures markets in the U.S. and the UK when both markets are extremely bullish or bearish. By contrast, German stock-bond futures extreme correlation is negative, which suggests most diversification potentials of German bond futures market when German stock index futures market plunges. Macroeconomic news, the business cycle and the stock market uncertainty all significantly affect the median stock-bond futures correlation. By contrast, only the stock market uncertainty (perhaps as a measure of investor sentiment) still significantly affects the extreme stock-bond futures correlation, when the stock market is extremely bearish.

Keywords: stock-bond extreme correlation, futures, copula, macroeconomic news, stock market uncertainty

JEL Classification: G12, G15, E44

Suggested Citation

Chui, Chin Man and Yang, Jian, Extreme Correlation of Stock and Bond Futures Markets: International Evidence (September 1, 2011). Working paper, July 2011. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1920854 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1920854

Chin Man Chui

Xiamen University - Institute for Financial and Accounting Studies ( email )

Xiamen, Fujian 361005
China

Jian Yang (Contact Author)

University of Colorado at Denver - Business School ( email )

1250 14th St.
Denver, CO 80204
United States

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