The Demographic Transition and the Ecological Transition: Enriching the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

IEFE Working Paper No. 44

25 Pages Posted: 7 Sep 2011

See all articles by Marzio Galeotti

Marzio Galeotti

University of Milan - Department of Environmental Science and Policy (DESP); Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy

Alessandro Lanza

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan; CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici; Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy

Maria Carla Ludovica Piccoli

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: September 7, 2011

Abstract

The impact of population growth on the environment is an issue that is highly debated yet comparatively under-researched empirically. This is true despite a vast number of published articles on the link between population and environmental changes speculating on the sign of the environment population elasticity. Although the issue can ultimately only be settled at the empirical level, the above contributions have been largely speculative. It was only in the mid-1990s that population was accounted for in the empirical work on the relationship between environmental quality/degradation and income within the framework of the 'Environmental Kuznets Curve' (EKC) hypothesis. While empirical EKC investigations have provided a useful contribution to the issue, a further important step can be made. Population in the EKC hypothesis is not treated like income but it serves, so to speak, just as a normalizing variable. As it turns out, however, also for population can we formulate a hypothetical behavior of its evolution over time vis-à-vis income, that can be accommodated within an EKC framework. This is the Demographic Transition. With the exception of Baldwin (1995) none of the studies mentioned so far have investigated the nexus between pollution, environmental degradation, and income within the conceptual framework of the two transitions: the demographic and the ecological one. The present paper represents the first econometric analysis of Demographic and Ecological Transitions. We incorporate the former into the EKC framework, thus obtaining an 'enriched' EKC hypothesis. Very long time series for 17 OECD countries in the case of CO2 emissions support our empirical approach.

Keywords: environment, growth, CO2 emissions, population

JEL Classification: O13, Q30, J00, C12, C22

Suggested Citation

Galeotti, Marzio and Lanza, Alessandro and Piccoli, Maria Carla Ludovica, The Demographic Transition and the Ecological Transition: Enriching the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (September 7, 2011). IEFE Working Paper No. 44. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1922594 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1922594

Marzio Galeotti (Contact Author)

University of Milan - Department of Environmental Science and Policy (DESP) ( email )

2 via Celoria
I-20133 Milano
Italy
+39-2-50316470 (Phone)
+39-2-50316486 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.unimi.it/chiedove/cv/ENG/marzio_galeotti.pdf?1531977155891

Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy ( email )

via Rontgen
Milan, 20123
Italy
+39-2-58362340 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.iefe.unibocconi.it

Alessandro Lanza

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan

Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Bologna, I-73100
Italy

Bocconi University - IEFE Centre for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy ( email )

viale Filippetti, 9
Milan, 20122
Italy

Maria Carla Ludovica Piccoli

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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