Inflation Persistence in the European Union, the Euro Area, and the United States

54 Pages Posted: 7 Sep 2011

See all articles by Gregory Gadzinski

Gregory Gadzinski

International University of Monaco (IUM)

Fabrice Orlandi

European Central Bank (ECB)

Date Written: November 1, 2004

Abstract

In this paper we report results on inflation persistence using 79 inflation series covering the EU countries, the euro area and the US for five different inflation variables. The picture that emerges is one of moderate inflation persistence across the board. In particular we find euro area inflation persistence to be broadly in line with US inflation persistence. The issue of allowing for intercept dummies in the underlying inflation models is found to be of paramount importance to avoid overestimation of the level of persistence. The use of alternative measures of persistence is found to be commendable on the grounds that they complement each other in practice.

Keywords: inflation dynamics, structural change, median unbiased estimates

JEL Classification: E31, E52, C22, C12

Suggested Citation

Gadzinski, Gregory and Orlandi, Fabrice, Inflation Persistence in the European Union, the Euro Area, and the United States (November 1, 2004). ECB Working Paper No. 414, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1923587

Gregory Gadzinski (Contact Author)

International University of Monaco (IUM) ( email )

2 Av Prince Hereditaire Albert
Stade Louis II/B
Monaco, Monaco MC-98000
United States

Fabrice Orlandi

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany
+49 69 1344 7222 (Phone)
+49 69 1344 6353 (Fax)

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