Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective
30 Pages Posted: 9 Sep 2011
Date Written: September 6, 2011
Two often-divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure side version, GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version, GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined estimate of GDP growth for the U.S., GDPC. We compare GDPC to GDPE and GDPI, with particular attention to behavior over the business cycle. We discuss several variations and extensions.
Keywords: National Income and Product Accounts, Output, Expenditure, Economic Activity, Business Cycle, Recession
JEL Classification: E01, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation