Examining the Effect of Public Attention on U.S. Senate Election Outcomes

Abstract

Congressional elections scholars have spent considerable time exploring how voters pay attention to campaigns. We add to this literature by conceptualizing public attention as a relative measure between two candidates. Borrowing from epidemiology and research in public policy, we propose a new indicator of public attention based on trends in Internet search activity. Such a conceptualization allows for us to insert public attention into the larger theoretical picture. We test this measure by statistically analyzing Senate elections between 2004-2010, finding a positive and significant relationship between relative attentiveness and electoral success that is robust across multiple specifications.