Information Driven Price Jumps and Trading Strategy: Evidence from Stock Index Futures

47 Pages Posted: 15 Sep 2011  

Hong Miao

Colorado State University, Fort Collins - Department of Finance & Real Estate

Sanjay Ramchander

Colorado State University, Fort Collins - Department of Finance & Real Estate

J. Kenton Zumwalt

Colorado State University, Fort Collins - Department of Finance & Real Estate

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Date Written: September 15, 2011

Abstract

This paper identifies intraday price jumps in equity index futures and examines the association between jump returns and macroeconomic announcements. We also evaluate the profitability of a high-frequency trading rule. Results indicate that about 48% to 56% of jump returns between 10:00-10:01 am can be attributed to the release of at least one 10:00 am announcement. About 70-80% of the top twenty jumps identified during the sample period at this time interval can be tagged with the 10:00 am releases. Finally, after accounting for transaction costs, returns from 1-minute holding positions aggregated over the 10-year sample period range between 16-29%.

Keywords: Macroeconomic News, Jumps, Index Futures, Trading Strategy

JEL Classification: G10, G14

Suggested Citation

Miao, Hong and Ramchander, Sanjay and Zumwalt, J. Kenton, Information Driven Price Jumps and Trading Strategy: Evidence from Stock Index Futures (September 15, 2011). Midwest Finance Association 2012 Annual Meetings Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1927966 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1927966

Hong Miao

Colorado State University, Fort Collins - Department of Finance & Real Estate ( email )

Fort Collins, CO 80523
United States

Sanjay Ramchander (Contact Author)

Colorado State University, Fort Collins - Department of Finance & Real Estate ( email )

Fort Collins, CO 80523
United States
970-491-6681 (Phone)

J. Kenton Zumwalt

Colorado State University, Fort Collins - Department of Finance & Real Estate ( email )

Fort Collins, CO 80523
United States

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