Improving GDP Measurement: A Forecast Combination Perspective
30 Pages Posted: 21 Sep 2011
Date Written: September 19, 2011
Two often - divergent U.S. GDP estimates are available, a widely-used expenditure-side version GDPE, and a much less widely-used income-side version GDI . The authors propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. They then put the theory to work, producing a superior combined estimate of GDP growth for the U.S., GDPC. The authors compare GDPC to GDPE and GDPI , with particular attention to behavior over the business cycle. They discuss several variations and extensions.
Keywords: National Income and Product Accounts, Output, Expenditure, Economic Activity, Business Cycle, Recession
JEL Classification: E01, E32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation